The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Control Performance Assessment Theoretical Analyses and Industrial Practice
This book presents a comprehensive review of currently available Control Performance Assessment methods. It covers a broad range of classical and modern methods, with a main focus on assessment practice, and is intended to help practitioners learn and properly perform control assessment in the industrial reality. Further, it offers an educational guide for control engineers, who are currently in high demand in the industry. The book consists of three main parts. Firstly, a comprehensive review of available approaches is presented and discussed. The classical canon methods are extended with a discussion of nonlinear and complex alternative measures using non-Gaussian statistics, persistence and fractional calculations. Secondly, the methods’ applicability aspects are visualized with the aid of computer simulations, covering the most popular control philosophies used in the process industry. Lastly, a critical review of the methods discussed, on the basis of real-world industrial examples, rounds out the coverage.
Unifying Themes in Complex Systems is a well-established series of carefully edited conference proceedings that serve to document and archive the progress made regarding cross-fertilization in this field. The International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS) creates a unique atmosphere for scientists from all fields, engineers, physicians, executives, and a host of other professionals, allowing them to explore common themes and applications of complex systems science. With this new volume, Unifying Themes in Complex Systems continues to establish common ground between the wide-ranging domains of complex systems science.
This second of three volumes from the inaugural NODYCON, held at the University of Rome, in February of 2019, presents papers devoted to Nonlinear Dynamics and Control. The collection features both well-established streams of research as well as novel areas and emerging fields of investigation. Topics in Volume II include influence of nonlinearities on vibration control systems; passive, semi-active, active control of structures and systems; synchronization; robotics and human-machine interaction; network dynamics control (multi-agent systems, leader-follower dynamics, swarm dynamics, biological networks dynamics); and fractional-order control.
If you had a 10 percent chance of having a fatal car accident, you'd take necessary precautions. If your finances had a 10 percent chance of suffering a severe loss, you'd reevaluate your assets. So if we know the world is warming and there's a 10 percent chance this might eventually lead to a catastrophe beyond anything we could imagine, why aren't we doing more about climate change right now? We insure our lives against an uncertain future--why not our planet? In Climate Shock, Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman explore in lively, clear terms the likely repercussions of a hotter planet, drawing on and expanding from work previously unavailable to general audiences. They show that the longer we wait to act, the more likely an extreme event will happen. A city might go underwater. A rogue nation might shoot particles into the Earth's atmosphere, geoengineering cooler temperatures. Zeroing in on the unknown extreme risks that may yet dwarf all else, the authors look at how economic forces that make sensible climate policies difficult to enact, make radical would-be fixes like geoengineering all the more probable. What we know about climate change is alarming enough. What we don't know about the extreme risks could be far more dangerous. Wagner and Weitzman help readers understand that we need to think about climate change in the same way that we think about insurance--as a risk management problem, only here on a global scale. With a new preface addressing recent developments Wagner and Weitzman demonstrate that climate change can and should be dealt with--and what could happen if we don't do so--tackling the defining environmental and public policy issue of our time.
Proceedings of SPIE present the original research papers presented at SPIE conferences and other high-quality conferences in the broad-ranging fields of optics and photonics. These books provide prompt access to the latest innovations in research and technology in their respective fields. Proceedings of SPIE are among the most cited references in patent literature.
This volume brings a variety of viewpoints on appropriate policy to meet the threats brought on by man-made climate change. Not only economic theory but broader political and methodological perspectives are brought to bear by an authoritive set of authors.
Option Value and the Timing of Environmental Policy